Economic Observer Network (Reporter Zhou Ju) Since September 2017, when Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology Xin Guobin first issued a signal to ban the sale of fuel vehicles at the Teda Forum, discussions about the "ban on combustion" (banning the sale of fuel vehicles) have been ongoing, but there has never been a clear timetable.
On May 20th, the China Petroleum Consumption Total Control and Policy Research Project (hereinafter referred to as the Oil Control Research Project) released a report in Beijing titled "Research on the Exit Schedule of Traditional Fuel Vehicles in China" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). Based on the development and emission targets of China's automotive industry, the report analyzed the exit time of fuel vehicles and proposed that China is expected to achieve comprehensive exit of traditional fuel vehicles before 2050. Among them, private cars in first tier cities will achieve comprehensive new energy transformation by 2030.
On the premise of achieving the goal of comprehensive replacement of new energy vehicles by 2050, the report has set regional levels, which are divided into four levels based on ten major indicators in various regions of China, including economic development, automobile saturation, fuel vehicle purchase and travel restrictions, new energy vehicle industry layout and promotion efforts, and government decision-making and execution capabilities. Among them, mega cities (such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, etc.), as well as functional demonstration areas (such as Hainan, Xiong'an, etc.), will be the first tier cities to achieve the goal of banning the sale of fuel vehicles.
In terms of the order of vehicle exit, priority has also been assigned. The report points out that among all categories of fuel vehicles, buses, taxis, time-sharing rental and ride hailing services, postal and light logistics vehicles, airport and port vehicles, environmental sanitation vehicles, and government vehicles will be the earliest to achieve comprehensive exit, approximately by 2030.
Next is private cars. In first and second tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Nanjing, private cars will be fully withdrawn by 2030, while nationwide withdrawal will be complete by 2040. On alternative vehicle models, hybrid technology will be preferred to significantly reduce fuel consumption levels, with a replacement ratio exceeding 25-35%; With the decrease in the cost of pure electric vehicles and the increase in consumer awareness, the majority of car replacement demand will shift from hybrid to pure electric. It is expected that by 2050, the proportion of pure electric vehicles in the private car industry will reach around 85%.
The latest commercial vehicles to achieve the withdrawal of fuel vehicles are light trucks, heavy trucks, and buses. Overall, China will achieve the complete withdrawal of traditional fuel vehicles before 2050.
The report states that the basis for formulating this timetable is based on the future development goals and technology strategies of various automotive companies for new energy vehicles, and through extensive consultation with experts, a predictive model for the development of China's automotive industry has been constructed to determine the 2050 future scenario for the exit of traditional fuel vehicles.
As for the setting of this exit rhythm, the report states that based on the principle of first loosening and then tightening, the energy-saving and new energy vehicle targets for the period of 2020 to 2030 are based on national targets, while the period of 2031-2050 is determined by a self consistent fitting based on a decrease of 55% and 80% in total automobile oil consumption from peak levels in 2040 and 2050, respectively. Based on future scenarios, predict the development and application of alternative technologies for various vehicle models, and propose a timetable for the exit of traditional fuel vehicles.
It is reported that the "Oil Control Research Project" was jointly launched in January 2018 by the Natural Resources Conservation Association and the Energy Foundation China as coordinating units, in cooperation with more than ten influential units such as domestic and foreign government research think tanks, research institutes, and industry associations. The report released this time was written by the Energy and Transportation Innovation Center, hoping to serve as a reference for relevant departments when making decisions.
Among the countries in the world that have announced their ban plans, the year 2050 given in the report is the latest among them. As of now, countries such as the Netherlands, Norway, Paris, France, the United Kingdom, and India have all introduced specific lockdown schedules, with the earliest being Rome, Italy's 2024 and the latest being France's 2040.
However, there are still different opinions in the industry on whether China should introduce a timetable for banning combustion. At the Electric Vehicle Hundred People Conference earlier this year, Huang Yonghe, Chief Engineer of the Intelligence Institute of China Automotive Technology Research Center Co., Ltd., stated that China is not suitable to immediately introduce a timetable for banning the sale of fuel vehicles. He said that on the one hand, in the context of a downturn in the car market, the introduction of a ban on the sale of fuel vehicles will cause panic among consumers, delay plans to purchase models equipped with fuel engines, and have a negative impact on the consumer market. On the other hand, the range of new energy vehicles in China differs from that of "zero emission" vehicles abroad. Huang Yonghe believes that by around 2050, internal combustion engines will still have some vitality, and according to the International Energy Agency's prediction, the proportion of vehicles equipped with internal combustion engines will reach about 65%.